From: "Frank Conlon" <conlon@U.WASHINGTON.EDU>
To: <H-ASIA@H-NET.MSU.EDU>
Sent: Friday, September 09, 2011 11:05 PM
Subject: H-ASIA: AJISS-Commentary No.129 on Reconciliation in Thailand by
Akira Suehiro
> H-ASIA
> September 9, 2011
>
> AJISS-Commentary No.129 on Reconciliation in Thailand by Akira Suehiro
> ************************************************************************
> From: Japan Institute of International Affairs <e-commentary@jiia.or.jp>
>
> Editor: Akio Watanabe
> Editorial Board: Hideki Asari, Masashi Nishihara, and Taizo Yakushiji
> Online Publisher: Yoshiji Nogami
>
> AJISS-Commentary No.129
> "Prospects for Reconciliation in Thailand" by Akira Suehiro
>
> [Akira Suehiro is Director of and Professor at the Institute of Social
> Science, The University of Tokyo. The views expressed in this piece are
> the author's own and should not be attributed to The Association of
> Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies.]
>
> http://www.jiia.or.jp/en_commentary/201109/09-1.html
>
> Beating pre-election estimates, the pro-Thaksin Phue Thai (PT) Party swept
> the board in Thailand's general election on July 3. PT amassed a total of
> 265 of the 500 seats in parliament, compared with the 159 secured by the
> Democrat Party. On the following day, PT began negotiations with five
> minor parties, including Chart Thai Pattana, to form a coalition
> government that eventually had a solid majority of 300 seats. On August 5,
> Yinluk Shinawatra, born in 1967 and the youngest sister of former Prime
> Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was elected to lead the new Cabinet. She is
> the first female prime minister in Thailand, which has had 27 prime
> ministers.
>
> Since the September 2006 coup that ousted Thaksin, battles have continued
> between the pro-Thaksin United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship
> (UDD), known as the "red shirts", and the "yellow-shirt" People's Alliance
> for Democracy (PAD). These battles culminated in bloodshed in 2010, with
> 92 people killed and more than 800 injured in the three months from March
> to May. It is wrong, however, to depict Thailand's political turmoil as
> one between PT represented by the red shirts and the Democrat Party
> represented by the yellow shirts. PT's supporters include not only the red
> shirts but also low-income dwellers in Bangkok and citizens in rural areas
> outside the southern region. Meanwhile, the yellow shirts have started
> this year targeting their criticism not just at PT but also at the
> government led by the Democrat Party's Abhisit Vejjajiva. More
> importantly, the yellow shirts advocated boycotting the July election,
> thus denying the very foundation of democratic principles. The myth that
> the yellow shirts are a pro-democracy force has been shattered.
>
> The biggest factor contributing to PT's victory was the spread of
> democracy from the capital region into rural areas. This allowed rural
> residents to express their frustration at the widening economic
> disparities by ballot rather than the traditional method of making a
> direct plea to the king (thawai thika) or submitting a petition to
> political leaders (kho-rong). This is attested to by the high voter
> turnout of 71.4%, the second highest on record after the general election
> in December 2007.
>
> Let's take a closer look at the results of the 375 seats allocated for
> single-seat constituencies by comparing them with pre-election estimates.
> PT made headway in the northeast region where the party won 103 seats as
> compared with the estimated 70 (of the 126 seats in total), in the north
> where it won 49 as compared with 36 (of the 61 seats in total) and in the
> central region where it won 42 as compared with 36 (of the 102 seats in
> total). In contrast, the Democrat Party suffered a crushing defeat as it
> saw its seats drop from 25 to 4 in the northeast, from 17 to 13 in the
> north and from 42 to 25 in the central region. Even in Bangkok where a
> clear-cut victory was expected for the Democrats, the party secured only
> 23 of the 33 seats. PT's overwhelming strength in rural districts can be
> attributed less to Thaksin's popularity than to the strong frustration
> felt by people at the failure of the Abhisit government to narrow the
> economic gap.
>
> In May, just before the election, the Abhisit government introduced a
> series of electoral reforms. Amendments to election law increased the
> number of proportional-representation seats from 100 to 125 while reducing
> the number of proportional-representation districts across the country
> from eight to one. They also changed the existing multiple-seat
> constituencies into single-seat constituencies. These reforms, however,
> all backfired on the Democrats. In proportional representation, PT with
> Yinluck as its head appealed to the voters with slogans calling for "the
> first female prime minister in Thailand" and "social reconciliation under
> the female prime minister," effectively dispelling the Democrats' attacks
> that PT was Thaksin's proxy party and that the red shirts were a group of
> terrorists. The national leader's popularity has a decisive impact on
> election outcomes in Thailand. The high expectations of the newcomer
> Yinluck far outstripped the popularity of her predecessor, Abhisit
> Vejjajiva, who in people's eyes epitomized the political elite.
>
> Where will Thai politics lead? The instability that has characterized Thai
> politics since the 2006 coup will continue for the time being. It is
> unclear how effectively Yinluck, whose political expertise is unknown, can
> mitigate the domestic conflict. If the new government insists on a
> political comeback for Thaksin and seeks to hold accountable those
> responsible for the 2010 bloodshed, frictions with the military and the
> royalists will grow. On the other hand, if the government carries out PT's
> election pledges of raising the minimum wage to 300 baht a day (the
> current minimum wage in Bangkok stands at 215 baht) and doubling the
> initial salaries of civil servants to 15,000 baht, and couples these with
> economic policies that could add to inflationary pressures, the economy
> could become unstable. This would inevitably be reflected in political
> instability.
>
> Thailand is no longer a developing country; it is a middle-income country.
> The percentage of the population deemed poor dropped from 21% in 2000 to
> 8.5% in 2007. The challenge the country is facing is no longer poverty
> itself but widening domestic gaps in income and employment due to
> inequality of opportunity. This also includes the problems of the social
> security system, which has not yet taken into account the rapidly ageing
> and shrinking population, and the mismatch of education and labor markets
> that is coming to light as an increasing number of people receive higher
> education. Thais expect the new government to address these "middle-income
> country" challenges. What is required is not mere cosmetic political
> reconciliation but rather earnest effort toward resolving the new social
> problems underlying the political conflict.
>
>
> ****************
> AJISS-Commentary is an occasional op-ed type publication of The
> Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies (AJISS) consisting
> of three leading Japanese think tanks: Institute for International Policy
> Studies (IIPS), The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), and
> Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS).
>
> http://www.jiia.or.jp/en/commentary/
>
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